According to Business Insider, adtech executives at CES are planning for a pivotal 2026, as the industry faces massive disruption from AI and declining web traffic. A Similarweb report from July found the median “zero-click rate” on Google searches soared from 60% to 80% when AI Overviews were shown, cratering publisher traffic and ad revenue. All eyes are on a federal judge’s decision, expected as soon as this month, on potential remedies in the DOJ’s case against Google, which could include a breakup of its AdX exchange. Meanwhile, The Trade Desk, whose stock cratered in 2025, has made a sweep of new executive hires, with industry insiders speculating it may pursue major acquisitions to expand into new verticals or creative tech. The entire ecosystem is now laser-focused on diversifying revenue into areas like connected TV (CTV) and retail media.
AI isn’t just for ads, it’s becoming the customer
Here’s the thing: AI in adtech used to be about optimizing bids or personalizing creatives. Now, it’s threatening to remove the human from the equation entirely. The big, looming shift is “agentic advertising.” Think about it: if an AI agent is booking your vacation or doing your grocery shopping, how do you advertise to *it*? Debra Aho Williamson nails it—that “ad” becomes a piece of code or data designed to trigger an action between machines. It won’t have a flashy video or a clever tagline. This completely rewires the value chain. And of course, everyone’s waiting to see if and when OpenAI drops its ad plans, which could instantly create a new walled garden or a new platform everyone else has to plug into.
The open web is leaking, and everyone’s scrambling
That 60% to 80% zero-click stat isn’t just a problem for publishers. It’s an existential threat for any adtech company whose business is glued to serving ads on traditional web pages. The economics are breaking. So what’s the play? Diversify, and fast. That’s why Bill Wise from Mediaocean says everyone’s rushing into CTV—it’s where the sight, sound, and motion budget is going, and advertisers are desperate for options outside the Google/Meta duopoly. But this rush is causing a weird blurring of lines. Sell-side and buy-side platforms are invading each other’s turf, promising advertisers better inventory and publishers more transparency. It feels like the wild west all over again, and as Andrew Casale points out, that inherent conflict of interest—serving both buyer and seller—never really got solved. Can new tech fix a fundamental trust problem? I’m skeptical.
The Trade Desk’s make-or-break year
2025 was rough for the poster child of independent adtech. Amazon’s competition is real, and leaning on the “open internet” is a risky bet when that very terrain is eroding. So they’ve hired a whole new C-suite squad. That’s not a subtle move—it’s a prelude to action. Chris Karl is probably right: after only tiny acquisitions, The Trade Desk is almost forced to make a big, vertical-focused buy to deepen its moat. They need proprietary data, deeper creative tools, something that makes their Kokai platform more than just a better buying tool for a shrinking pie. They’re trying to pivot from being the champion *of* the open web to being the essential platform for advertising *outside* the walled gardens. It’s a nuanced but critical shift.
The 800-pound gorilla in court
The DOJ vs. Google ruling is the joker in the deck for 2026. A forced breakup of AdX would be the biggest earthquake in digital advertising in a decade. Even behavioral remedies, like changing auction rules, could force massive technical changes across the ecosystem. But Anthony Katsur’s point is key: Google is so massive that any internal change causes “seismic ripples.” Whether by court order or market pressure, Google’s moves dictate the weather for everyone else. And some players aren’t waiting—the lawsuits from Business Insider and OpenX show there’s blood in the water. The outcome will either create a window of opportunity for competitors or further entrench Google’s power under new rules. For an industry built on real-time bidding, 2026’s biggest variable is stuck in a very slow-moving court.
