According to CNBC, investment firm TD Cowen has raised its price target for Alphabet stock to $350 from $335, implying a 12% upside. Analyst John Blackledge reiterated a buy rating, citing the successful integration of AI Overviews in Google Search. He now projects Google Search will grow at a 10.2% compound annual rate over the next five years, up from 9.6%. Blackledge also dramatically increased his forecast for Gemini monthly users, expecting 850 million by the end of 2025 and nearly 3 billion by 2030. This follows a survey showing ramping usage of Gemini 3 and increased engagement with AI features in Search. Alphabet shares have already surged 65% this year.
The AI Optimism Is Real, But So Are The Risks
Look, the numbers are undeniably huge. Forecasting nearly 3 billion Gemini users by 2030 is a massive bet on Google‘s ability to not just catch up to, but dominate, the AI assistant race. And the idea that AI is *already* boosting search engagement enough to move the long-term growth needle? That’s the bull case in a nutshell. If AI Overviews get people to search more and click on more ads, it’s a goldmine. But here’s the thing: we’ve seen Google stumble with AI rollouts before. Remember the chaotic launch of AI Overviews that gave famously bad advice? Public trust is fragile. The assumption that this adoption curve will be smooth feels a bit too clean.
The User Forecast Feels Like A Hail Mary
Let’s talk about that Gemini user number. Jumping from an estimated 600 million to 850 million MAUs in just over a year is a huge leap. And then to 3 billion? That’s basically saying Gemini will become as ubiquitous as Google Search or YouTube. I have to ask: is this based on solid data, or is it just the kind of exponential hockey-stick curve every analyst loves to draw? Gemini is competing in a crowded field with ChatGPT, Copilot, and a dozen others. Getting to that scale requires flawless execution and, frankly, a product that’s head-and-shoulders above the rest. Right now, it’s not clear it has that decisive edge.
The Ad Machine Keeps Churning
Now, the less flashy part of the note is probably the most important. Blackledge’s point about Google’s advertising dominance is hard to argue with. The mobile ad engine is a beast, and if AI simply makes that engine more efficient or engaging, the financial upside is almost automatic. That’s the real bedrock here. All this AI investment isn’t just for cool demos; it’s about protecting and supercharging the core ad business. So, even if the Gemini moon-shot falls short, the bet is that AI in Search alone justifies the higher valuation. It’s a safer layer to the thesis. But it also means Google’s fate is still overwhelmingly tied to the ad market’s health. Any wobble there, and all this AI progress gets a lot less valuable on the bottom line.
