Analyst Sees More Upside for Google Stock, But Is It Justified?

Jan 8, 2026 10:56 AM ESTby Elisa Romero • 2 min read

According to CNBC, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Deepak Mathivanan has upgraded Alphabet’s stock to overweight from neutral. He also raised his price target to $370 from $310, which implies about 15% upside from current levels. The analyst believes Alphabet’s “technological advantages” with its Gemini AI assistant are underappreciated compared to rivals like ChatGPT. He also pointed to an easing regulatory environment and revenue acceleration in search and cloud as growth drivers. This comes after Alphabet shares soared a massive 65% in 2025. Following the upgrade, the stock traded more than 1% higher.

AI Moats and High Expectations

Look, the analyst’s argument about Google‘s “deep competitive moats” in AI isn’t wrong. They have a decade of infrastructure investment and, as Mathivanan notes, a strong footprint across the AI tech stack. The idea that their “grounding” assets—basically, their search index and real-world data—give Gemini an edge is compelling. And a friendlier regulatory landscape would certainly remove a major overhang. But here’s the thing: the stock just ran up 65% last year. The market has already priced in a lot of this AI optimism. When expectations are this high, the margin for error is razor-thin. One misstep with Gemini’s rollout or a quarter where cloud growth merely “meets” expectations could send this thing tumbling.

The Execution Question

So, the thesis hinges on execution. Mathivanan talks about AI driving query volume in search and “Agentic” solutions taking off in cloud. That’s the dream scenario. But Google’s history with AI hasn’t exactly been flawless. Remember the rushed and embarrassing demo for the original Gemini? They’ve been playing catch-up in the public perception game against OpenAI for a while now. Translating technical infrastructure into winning products that people and businesses actually prefer is the hard part. I think the real question is: can Google’s culture, which has sometimes moved slowly, operate with the speed needed to capitalize on this moment? The upgrade assumes they can. Investors betting on that $370 target are betting that the execution will be perfect.

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