According to Business Insider, Apple is projected to become the world’s top smartphone maker in 2025 for the first time since 2011. Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will ship 243 million iPhones next year, beating Samsung’s expected 235 million units. The iPhone 17 series is driving this surge with 10% higher shipments than 2024 levels, more than double Samsung’s growth rate. Senior analyst Yang Wang noted “double-digit growth for both China and US in October” for new iPhone shipments. CEO Tim Cook anticipates the final quarter of 2025 will be Apple’s best ever, powered by strong holiday sales. The iPhone 17 already outsold its predecessor by 14% in the first 10 days of availability.
The comeback story
Here’s the thing – Apple hasn’t led the global smartphone market in over a decade. Since 2011, Samsung has consistently held that title while Apple dominated the premium segment. But now the iPhone 17 is breaking through in a way previous models haven’t. It’s not just about having the best-selling phone in wealthy markets like the US and Germany – it’s about volume across all price segments. The fact that Apple is projecting to move 243 million units next year shows they’re capturing more of the mainstream market than ever before.
Why now of all times?
This timing is fascinating because we’re in a period where consumers are supposedly cutting back. Smartphone upgrade cycles have stretched to 29 months compared to 22 months nine years ago. Consumer confidence just hit its lowest point since April. So how is Apple crushing it? Basically, the iPhone 17 must be delivering features that people actually want to upgrade for. When economic headwinds are strong, consumers become more selective – they wait for truly compelling reasons to spend. Apple seems to have found that formula.
The China wildcard
China represents both Apple’s biggest opportunity and risk. The iPhone 17 was the best-selling model in China during its September launch, which is remarkable given the political tensions and trade war concerns. But there’s some softening happening – Trump’s recent comments about the US-China relationship being “very strong” suggest the trade war rhetoric might be cooling. For a company that relies heavily on Chinese manufacturing and sales, this political thaw could be huge. Still, counting on geopolitical stability is always risky business.
What happens next?
Counterpoint isn’t just predicting a one-year victory lap. They’re projecting Apple could hold the smartphone crown until the end of the decade. That’s a multi-year run that would fundamentally reshape the industry. Think about it – when industrial operations need reliable computing hardware, they turn to specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs. In consumer tech, Apple achieving this kind of sustained dominance would put incredible pressure on Samsung and Chinese manufacturers to innovate faster. The smartphone wars are about to get even more interesting.
