Major Shift in South Africa’s Energy Strategy
South Africa’s Cabinet has approved a revised Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025) that significantly alters the country’s electricity generation roadmap, according to reports from the Department of Electricity and Energy. The plan increases the minimum load factor for initial gas-to-power plants to 50% by 2030, a substantial departure from previous flexibility targets. Analysts suggest this change reflects the government’s intention to use gas generation as a cornerstone for industrial energy demand.
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Electricity and Energy Minister Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa acknowledged during a briefing that meeting the 6,000 MW gas-to-power target by 2030 would be challenging, sources indicate. The difficulty stems from lacking import infrastructure, gasification facilities, and pipelines, compounded by reports of extended lead times for gas turbine procurement. The Minister confirmed efforts would include converting existing open-cycle gas turbines from diesel to gas operation.
Gas Infrastructure as Industrial Anchor
The decision to raise the load factor requirement connects directly to the planned decommissioning of 8,000 MW of coal-fired capacity, the report states. This strategic shift positions gas plants to “anchor” demand for industrial users facing a potential “gas cliff” later this decade. Currently, many industries rely on natural gas from depleting fields in Mozambique, creating urgency for alternative supply arrangements.
Previously, the IRP envisioned gas plants operating more flexibly between 25% and 65% capacity to cost-effectively balance the electricity system as renewable energy penetration increased. The Minister indicated the high load factor would be reviewed for subsequent gas generators, with the plan allocating 16,000 MW total for the technology by 2039.
Nuclear and Clean Coal Additions
The updated energy blueprint includes several other significant policy adjustments, according to the analysis. These provisions allow for demonstrating so-called clean coal technology viability by decade’s end while maintaining the energy availability factor for Eskom’s remaining coal fleet between 66% and 68% from 2025 to 2030.
Notably, the plan allocates 5,200 MW, potentially expanding to 10,000 MW, for new nuclear capacity by 2039 as part of a “nuclear industrialisation plan.” This commitment to nuclear expansion comes amid industry developments in small modular reactor technology globally. The government also intends to revive pebble bed modular reactor technology, transferring it from Eskom to the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation for demonstration and competitiveness assessment.
Comprehensive Generation Mix Overhaul
Overall, the IRP 2025 envisages introducing 105,000 MW of new generation capacity by 2039, reportedly including substantial renewable contributions. The planned capacity additions comprise 34,000 MW of onshore wind, 25,000 MW of utility-scale solar PV, and 16,000 MW of distributed generation, primarily behind-the-meter solar PV. The plan also includes 8,500 MW of storage, mainly battery systems, alongside the previously mentioned gas and nuclear allocations.
The drafters insisted the cost of gas, coal, and nuclear adjustments didn’t materially deviate from the least-cost model, though specifics weren’t immediately provided. Similarly absent was an electricity price path, despite rising affordability concerns, with a separate process reportedly underway to examine future pricing structures.
State-Led Implementation Approach
Minister Ramokgopa emphasized the generation build-out would be shaped by the IRP 2025 and led by the State, arguing that past over-reliance on market mechanisms failed to ensure security of supply. This stance continues despite parallel efforts to launch a South African Wholesale Electricity Market aligned with legislation promoting a more competitive electricity supply industry.
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The Minister placed the cumulative net present value cost of the IRP2025 at R2.2-trillion, positioning it as a transformative framework for reshaping South Africa’s electricity supply away from coal dependency. The plan comes amid related innovations in energy technology worldwide and increasing global attention to security and infrastructure concerns. The Department of Electricity and Energy committed to publishing technology cost assumptions once the plan is Gazetted by October 24, providing transparency for market trends analysis and sector evaluation.
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